Relationship between Crime and Economic Conditions in Punjab A Time Series Approach from 1984-2015

Abstract

Using the time series data from 1984 to 2015, this study  attempts to explore Punjab economic situation and the relationship between criminal activities. Six variables are used for economic conditions, such as crime as a dependent variable, male dropout ratio, female dropout ratio, unemployment, household size and urbanization. We check their relationship with the reported crime. Agumented Dicky Fuller test for unit root process indicates that all variables are stationary at the level and first difference. For long-term relationships, Johansen Cointegration technology has been applied. The results of the statistical process show that dropout ratio and unemployment and other variables are closely related to crime. VECM has been applied to check the short run relationship between the variables. VECM results show variables adjustment towards equilibrium. Study gives evidence that economic conditions have significant impact on crimes and increasing dropout, unemployment which is Positive related with crime in Punjab. It is also  shown that the crime is influenced by economic condition.